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Published April 05, 2011, 03:55 PM

Flooding Update from NWS

The following is the complete flooding update provided by the National Weather Service as of Tuesday, April 5th

All rivers in the Red River Basin system are now showing increasing flows as a result of recent warming temperatures and accelerating snowmelt and run-off. Temperatures are expected to warm into the 40s and 50s throughout this week. Much of the remaining area snowpack should be coming into the system over the next few days.

The current atmospheric weather pattern will likely produce periods of lighter rain showers throughout the week. This weekend, there is a heightened risk for a stronger storm system to develop and produce significant rainfall, from Saturday evening into Sunday.

NWS forecasters are considering a probable scenario in which precipitation amounts could range from one half inch to one and a half inches, during the period, along with the possibility of embedded thunderstorms over part of the southern basin on Saturday evening.

Considering this scenario, the crest range for the Red River at Fargo-Moorhead is projected to be from 39-41 feet. With no additional precipitation occurring, the crest would likely be nearer to 39.5 feet.

Otherwise, On the Minnesota tributaries:

Flows on the Otter Tail near Breckenridge have been decreasing as local runoff is now mainly in the channel. However, increasing flows are expected to move from the upper Otter Tail River system, above Orwell Dam, into the lower Otter Tail near Breckenridge by this weekend.

Overland flows near branches of the Buffalo River have decreased substantially, following the initial crest on that system earlier in the week. A secondary crest and somewhat higher crest is still expected on these rivers this weekend.

The Sand Hill Creek and Wild Rice River in Minnesota are expecting steady rises towards a crest early in the coming week.

The Red Lake River is showing a slow decrease near High Landing, but continues to rise from Thief River Falls into Crookston and East Grand Forks. Overland flow in Polk County has diminished, but will see increases near the mainstem Red channel throughout the coming weeks.

The Snake River will increase slightly from Warren into Alvarado and points west.

Flow from along the Two Rivers river, will continue to increase from Lake Bronson into Hallock and points west through this week.

The Roseau River is now seeing increases from Malung into Roseau which should continue into early next week.

On the North Dakota Tributaries:

The North Dakota Wild Rice is still seeing significant inflows from Rutland into Mantador and Colfax areas. A flat and prolonged crest is expected late this week near Abercrombie.

The Upper reaches of the Sheyenne River are showing slow increases which are being stored at Lake Astabula Reservoir. Downstream of Valley City, local inflows will continue to increase into the weekend.

Local flows along the Maple River from Enderlin into Mapleton should peak this weekend.

Flows are just starting to increase along the upper portions of the Goose, Forest, Park River systems, with peak flows expected early in the coming week.

The Pembina River system is still largely ice affected and showing some local inflow, but is awaiting upstream flow to begin later next week.

On the mainstem Red River:

The Red River at Wahpeton will see an initial crest mid week, due to local runoff and primary flows coming in from the Otter Tail. A secondary significant crest is likely to follow next week as flows along the Otter Tail continue and flows along the Bois de Sioux increase.

The primary crest along the Red River at Fargo is now expected to occur from Sunday into Monday as peak flows from the Red and ND Wild Rice merge upstream of town. The crest range for the Red River at Fargo-Moorhead is projected to be from 39-41 feet, largely due to the variability in temperature and precipitation expectations this coming weekend.

Peak flows are expected to increase along the Red River from Halstad into throughout this week and into next week, with peak crests possible from next week well into late April.

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